Oscar Oracle #1: Gone Girl and Foxcatcher ...

My relationship with The Oscars could best be described as love-hate, in that I love movies and yet hate the biggest, bluntest mechanism we seem to have for celebrating them, The Academy Awards. And yet, as anyone who's prayed for peace but prepared for war knows, you can dislike something inevitable and still take care to be informed about it, like tracking the shorefall of a hurricane to better track the destruction it'll leave when it makes landfall.

There are several other Oscar Prognosticators, and even groups of such -- see David Poland's Gurus of Gold, for but one group of high-minded deep thinkers on the matter -- but the rules here at Oscar Oracle will be simple. First, inspired by the linguistic root of 'oracle,' I'm only going to talk about the Oscar chances of films I've actually seen. So, until American Sniper or Unbroken or Still Alice or Fury unfurl themselves before my retinas, I really can't -- and really won't -- talk about them as contenders. Second, when the actual nominations are released in January, I'll make picks against the Academy's nominations and see how well I do, which will be strenuously mentioned in all future Oscar Oracle columns by yours truly. For now, though, a discussion -- film by film, in installments -- of which films you might see in the Oscar nominations, and why.

• Gone Girl

Why I think It's going to get a nomination: Combining the thriller-like dark velocity of  Seven and the mind-games nature of The Game with the steely, sharp-eyed satire of The Social Networkhas turned out to find director David Fincher operating at perhaps his highest level. Yes, you can -- and should -- enjoyGone Girl for its construction, clues and clever criminality, but you can also enjoy it as an autopsy -- and exhumation -- of the way we live now, touching on everything from debt-fueled affluence, the nature of marriage, our petty, pre-fab media and the way the American Dream often turns out to be a nightmare to get, have and hold on to. Add in Ben Affleck's best work in a long time as a husband haunted by secrets and Rosamund Pike as a vanished woman who casts a long shadow and you're also looking at acting nominations for the leads as well -- if the Academy can get over its squeamishness and enjoy Fincher's bloody, bleak treat of a film.

Likely Nominations: Best Picture, Fincher for Best Director, Affleck and Pike for Best Actor/Actress, and Ms. Gillian Flynn for Best Adapted Screenplay.

From my Review:Dear Academy: For all that everyone's going to talk about Tyler Perry's work in the film, Carrie Coon, as Nick's twin Margot, gives a great performance and underpins a lot of the movie's emotional chords almost effortlessly: Please don't forget her.

"Gone Girl portrays marriage not just as warfare by other means but as many different kinds of battle — class conflict, sexual gamesmanship, wrangling over money, fighting over the future — with plenty of blood spilled. That's part of what makes it as damned good as it is; Gone Girl is that rare entertainment that rewards your intelligence instead of insulting it, that rare thriller interested in emotional wounds as much as physical ones."

Foxcatcher

Why I think it's going to get a nomination: Combining big thematic elements about the go-go '80s (an era with more in common than our own that most would think and many would like) with a true-life story of sports and crime, director Bennett Miller's Foxcatcher works on a host of different levels, The camerawork is like something out of Kubrick - frosty, formal, distant framing -- while the sound editing is like Altman at his best, where you see the big picture but hear the intimate one. It's also a hell of a slow burn -- and Steve Carrell's heavily made-up work to play the rich, reckless John E. Dupont is extraordinary, while Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo are excellent as two brother wrestlers, doing very physical acting without reservation or regret. (A scene where the two practice blocks and communicate by not communicating, early on, is breathtakingly engaging …)

Likely Nominations: Carrell and Tatum for Best Actor; Best Screenplay, E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman.

Dear Academy: I know it's tough with 10 Best Picture slots and only 5 Best Director shots, but I hope anyone who sees this film takes Mr. Miller's efforts seriously …

In Oscar Oracle #2, it's going to be all about British men and American Boyhood ...